India’s Myanmar Quandary, Its Paradoxical Policy

Relevance: GS2 - India and its neighbourhood- relations

(Source: The Hindu, 08/11/23)

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Why in the news?

• Recently, Myanmar’s acting president Myint Swe extended the emergency for the fourth time for another six months, however, the military regime decided to release several political prisoners and even reduced the sentences imposed on Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and the deposed President Win Myin.Ms. Suu Kyi was released from prison to house arrest.
• On 1 February 2021 the Myanmar military (also known as the Tatmataw) launched a coup against the civilian government, declaring the results of the November 2020 general election invalid and instating a state of emergency.

What is the impact of the decision?

• Emergency Extension and Electoral Conundrum: The extension of the 'emergency' by Myanmar's acting President has raised constitutional concerns as it not only delays the anticipated elections but also highlights the regime's struggle to establish 'normalcy' across the nation.
• According to data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, Myanmar's civilians experience more violence than even those in Afghanistan.
• Impact on Resistance: Suu Kyi's return could potentially fracture the unity of the National Unity Government (NUG)-led resistance, particularly the involvement of young activists, ethnic armed groups and even reconciliation with Rohingyas.
• Symbolic Gestures: The junta's symbolic moves might quell some protests, bolster their image on the international stage, and offer political leverage to foreign players like India.

Concerns

• Military's Influence: The military's substantial control over a limited territory has cast doubt on the legitimacy of a national election. Reports by the Burmese military and the Special Advisory Council for Myanmar (SAC-M) indicate that the Tatmadaw's influence extends to only 30%-40% of Myanmar, posing a credibility challenge if elections are held in such a confined area
• Electoral challenges: The National League for Democracy's decision to boycott elections, along with restrictive party registration laws, hampers opposition diversity. Additionally, the military's constitutional veto power limits the emergence of a substantial opposition.
• Compromised Progress: Despite appearances, Suu Kyi's willingness to collaborate with the military does not necessarily indicate a step towards democracy.

Indian policy

• India's policy towards Myanmar walks a tightrope between democratic commitments and regional security concerns.
• Swift Responses during Covid-19 pandemic: India's prompt assistance during the COVID-19 pandemic and Myanmar's coup showcased its proactive stance.
• Communities along the border have defied the Home Ministry by providing shelter to the refugees.
• India’s Concerns Vs Border Security: Myanmarese people have been accused of instigating violence in Manipur.
• Concerns over trafficking and drug smuggling in Myanmar led to India suspending the Free Movement Regime in September 2022.
• Diplomatic Engagements and Regional Alignments: External Affairs Minister Jaishankar's Mekong Ganga Cooperation (MGC) meeting in Bangkok was centered around infrastructure and border stability, reflecting India's proactive diplomacy and India has also supported the Association of Southeast Asian Nations ‘Five-Point Consensus’.
  • The Mekong-Ganga Cooperation (MGC) is an initiative by six countries – India and five ASEAN countries, namely, Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam for cooperation in tourism, culture, education, as well as transport and communications. It was launched in 2000 at Vientiane, Lao PDR. The MGC initiative aims to facilitate closer contacts among the people inhabiting these two major river basins.
• Balancing China's Influence: India's commitment to democracy in Myanmar clashes with its security concerns in the northeast and its complex relationship with China.
  • Sairang-Hmawngbuchhuah railway project under India’s Act East Policy, near the Myanmar border, aims to counter China’s railway access in Myanmar through Yunnan and the ambitious China-Myanmar Economic Corridor.

• Paradoxical policy: Reports from Justice for Myanmar, SAC-M, and the United Nations Special Rapporteur have reported an increase in India’s arms supply to the military since the coup. This indicates creating a contradiction in India's stance on democracy restoration.

Conclusion

Navigating the intricacies of Myanmar's situation demands a nuanced approach. The relaxation of Aung San Suu Kyi's prison sentence offers India an opportunity to engage with her and other pro-democracy actors, fostering dialogue for positive change. Additionally, a humane approach to incoming refugees, considering their kinship ties in India, can contribute to stability and compassion.

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FAQs

MCQ

Question: Question can be asked in this format in UPSC prelims on Myanmar

Question: Consider the following countries: (UPSC-2022)

1. Azerbaijan
2. Kyrgyzstan
3. Tajikistan
4. Uzbekistan
5. Turkmenistan

Which of the above have borders with Afghanistan?

(a) 1, 2 and 5 only

(b) 1, 2, 3 and 4 only

(c) 3, 4 and 5 only

(d) 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5