Disentangling The 2023 Global Renewable Energy Target

Relevance: GS3 - Conservation, environmental pollution and degradation, environmental impact assessment.

(Source: The Hindu, 09/15/2023)

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Why in the news?

• The 28th Conference of Parties (COP28) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which is scheduled to be held in November-December 2023 in Dubai aims to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030.
• This target is also mentioned in the G-20 declaration, as an aspirational goal.

What is Renewable Energy?

• Renewable energy is energy generated from naturally replenished and non-depleting sources such as the sun and wind.
• Renewable energy can be used to generate power, heat and cool buildings and water, and transport.
• Nonrenewable energy, on the other hand, is derived from finite resources that may be depleted over time, such as fossil fuels such as coal and oil.
• Renewable energy accounts for more than 20% of global energy supply, with certain countries generating more than half of their electricity from renewables.
• Examples of renewable energy sources: Wind power, Solar power, Bioenergy (organic matter burned as a fuel), Hydroelectric including tidal energy.

Renewable Energy Current Status

• Installed Capacity: In 2021, renewable energy sources (RES) accounted for 39% of the global installed electricity generation capacity, totaling 3026 GW.
• Electricity Generation Share: Despite the substantial capacity, RES contributed only 28% to the total electricity generation.
• Hydropower Dominance: Hydropower was the leading source of renewable energy, contributing to more than half (50%) of the RES generation.
• Solar and Wind: Solar (13%) and wind (23%) combined accounted for 36% of the RES generation, translating to 10% of the total electricity generation from all sources.

Global Renewable Energy (RE) Target

• Ambitious Target: To triple the RE capacity by 2030, the world aims to achieve approximately 9000 GW of installed capacity, which surpasses the entire global installed capacity from all sources in 2021.
• Growth Requirement: Meeting this target would entail adding around 6000 GW of renewable energy capacity between 2022 and 2030.

Regional Variations in Electricity Demand

• Electricity demand is not uniform globally, but rather varies significantly across countries and regions. These variations are influenced by a country's stage of development and other factors.
• Growing Electricity Demand: Countries like China and India have experienced a substantial increase in electricity demand in recent years. Between 2010 and 2019, China's annual electricity consumption grew at an impressive rate of 6.6%, while India's grew at 6.3%.
• EU and U.S. Electricity Demand: In contrast, developed regions like the European Union (EU) and the United States have witnessed either stagnant or declining electricity demand.
• During the same period, the EU saw a minimal decline of 0.3% in electricity consumption, while the United States experienced only a minimal growth rate of 0.12%.
• Presently, only 21% of the electricity in the United States and 37% in the EU is sourced from renewable energy sources, including hydro and biomass.

How will different countries fulfill energy demands?

• No Phase-Out of Fossil Fuel Capacity
  • U.S. Energy Demand: Without phasing out existing fossil fuel capacity, the U.S. would only require approximately 26 GW of new renewable energy (RE) capacity to meet additional electricity demand.
  • U.S. Share of Tripling Target: In this scenario, the U.S. would contribute a mere 0.4% to the global goal of tripling renewable energy capacity, which amounts to an additional 6000 GW by 2030.
  • India's Energy Demand: India, in contrast, would need to add about 717 GW of RE capacity to fulfill its additional energy demand.
  • India's Share of Tripling Target: Under this scenario, India's contribution to the global target would be a significant 12%.
• Full Phase-Out of Fossil Fuel-Based Capacity
  • U.S. and EU's Combined Share of New Capacity: In this scenario, the U.S. and the EU would collectively account for over a third of the new global RE capacity, aligning more closely with their fair share of the burden in the transition to renewable energy.
  • Benefits for Developing Countries: A full phase-out of fossil fuel capacity by developed nations would relieve developing countries of a significant portion of the burden, allowing for a smoother transition in the energy sector. This would prevent developed countries from consuming the remaining carbon budget with their still considerable fossil fuel capacity.

IRENA's Report Analysis

• The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) indicates that the majority of non-renewable energy (non-RE) capacity to be added by 2030 will be in developing regions.
• By 2030, 80% of power generation capacity in Sub-Saharan Africa is to be from RE sources, as compared to only 70% for the EU.
• China and India are set to make significant contributions to RE capacity, with India aiming to surpass the ambitious target of 500 GW by 2030.

Issue with the report

• Lack of equity: The report lacks consideration for equity among nations in renewable energy development.
• Absolute projections vs. demand growth: Absolute projections of installed capacity fail to account for the essential connection between capacity addition and the growth in energy demand.
• IRENA acknowledges that relative targets are less risky, as they are less reliant on demand growth matching expectations.
• Burden on developing countries: The primary burden of achieving renewable energy targets seems to fall disproportionately on developing countries. This enormous increase in RE capacity is not possible without matching non-RE capacity for stability of supply, and the availability of viable storage options that are as yet nowhere near the scale envisaged by such ambitious targets.
• Grid development challenges: Scaling up renewable energy capacity necessitates finding the resources to build national grids that can adequately support the development needs.
• Financial constraints: Meeting these goals will pose additional challenges due to the inability to secure the minimal annual target of $100 billion in climate finance covering all sectors.

Way Ahead

• Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced India's ambitious goal of reaching 500GW from non-fossil fuel sources by 2030 at COP26, while U.S. President Joe Biden did not make a similar promise and only announced a general intention to decarbonize the energy sector by 2035.
• The EU has a relative target of achieving 40% of final energy consumption from renewable sources by 2030 but not an absolute one.
  • These targets for the U.S. and EU primarily serve as market signals and are not guaranteed by government intervention.
• Developing countries at COP28, especially India, should consider the tripling global RE capacity target only if the North commits to absolute targets domestically, in an updated version of their Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement.

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FAQs

MCQ

Question: With reference to solar power production in India, consider the following statements: (UPSC 2018)

1. India is the third-largest in the world in the manufacture of silicon wafers used in photovoltaic units.
2. The solar power tariffs are determined by the Solar Energy Corporation of India.

Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

(a) 1 only

(b) 2 only

(c) Both 1 and 2

(d) Neither 1 nor 2