India And The Great Power Contest In West Asia

Relevance: GS2 - Bilateral, regional and global groupings and agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests, Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests

(Source: The Hindu, 09/25/2023)

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Why in the news?

• Recently, the U.S.A, India, Saudi Arabia, UAE, France, Germany, Italy, and the EU announced the establishment of the India-Middle East Economic Corridor to improve its position in the West Asian region where it was a dominating presence.
• This article discusses the U.S. strategy towards West Asia and India’s potential role in the region amid the various challenges to the U.S.A’s dominance.

What is the U.S.A.’s “two-part policy” towards West Asia?

• The G-20 summit in New Delhi highlighted the U.S.A.’s approach towards West Asia which can be illustrated by the geopolitical developments in the geostrategically important region.
• The Biden administration's strategy consists of two parts:
  • Strengthening ties between Gulf Arab nations and Israel to meet common geopolitical challenges
  • Reassuring U.S. allies in the region of the U.S.A’s continued presence in the region.

Part I: Strengthening Gulf Arab-Israel ties

• In a continuation of Trump-era policy to counter Iran, the USA has aimed to strengthen ties between its biggest allies in the region - the Gulf Arab states and Israel.
• The U.S.-led Abraham Accords improved Israel-UAE relations and signaled a shift from the “two-state solution”.
• However, the true potential of an Israel-Gulf accord depends on a deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
• The U.S. believes that a Saudi-Israel partnership will transform West Asian geopolitics and cement the U.S.’s dominant role in the region without additional military commitments.

Part II: Reassuring allies and economic integration

• The U.S.A. has attempted to assure its allies that it will retain its presence in West Asia.
• The I2U2 including India, Israel, the U.S.A., and UAE was established in 2021
• Goals: Enhance economic integration and technological cooperation between West Asia and South Asia
  • Addressing the challenges faced by the Global South.

U.S. Deprioritization of West Asia

• The U.S.A. has shifted focus to East Europe and East Asia due to the challenges posed by Russia and China respectively.
• Although the U.S.A. has deprioritized West Asia in terms of its security commitments, the region is still strategically significant.

China’s role

• China has sought to fill the gap left by the U.S.A. in West Asia.
• Economic: It is a major investor and the largest trading partner for most of the U.S.A.’s allies in the region.
• Diplomatic: It has emerged as a diplomatic influence as evidenced by its role in the successful Saudi-Iran reconciliation.

New West Asia and the challenges faced

• The U.S.A.’s strategy to retain and strengthen its influence in West Asia depends on the potential Saudi-Israeli agreement and faces strong competition from China.
• The U.S.A.'s deprioritization of West Asia has resulted in a security vacuum in the region.
  • Regional powers have been pursuing independent foreign policies and diversifying partnerships including UAE and Saudi Arabia joining BRICS.
  • Other examples include the Saudi-UAE détente with Iran, the end of the Saudi-led blockade of Qatar, and the Arab reconciliation with Syria.
  • However, Gulf states are unlikely to remain client states like during the Cold War.
• Another major challenge for the U.S.A. is its rivalry with Iran, a “hostile power”.
  • The Israel-Iran rivalry could destabilize the region and impact the U.S.A.’s ambitions.
  • The detente between the Gulf Arab and Israel indicates their unwillingness to get involved in the rivalry.

India's Opportunities

• India’s invitation to participate in the I2U2 is a recognition of its regional influence.
• India is a participant in the economic corridors of the region such as the
  • International North-South Transport Corridor between India and Russia via Iran and Central Asia
  • The India-Middle East-Europe Corridor aims to build an economic corridor from India through the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Israel, to the Mediterranean
• India’s size, economy, historical engagement, and cultural connections make it an important partner in reshaping West Asia’s geopolitics.
• The success of the IMEC could help the U.S.A. retain its influence in West Asia, through control of trade routes.
• India can leverage the U.S.-China competition in West Asia for enhanced engagement in the region.
• India must adopt multi-engagement in the region without aligning exclusively with any great power.

Conclusion

• The U.S.A.’s West Asia approach will impact India's role in the region.
• Therefore, India should capitalize on its historical ties and regional presence to play a significant role in shaping West Asia’s geopolitics while maintaining its traditional balance in its extended neighborhood.

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FAQs

MCQs

Question: The term "two-state solution" is sometimes mentioned in the news in the context of the affairs of (UPSC CSE 2018)

(a) China

(b) Israel

(c) Iraq

(d) Yemen

Question: Which of the following is not a member of ‘Gulf Cooperation Council’? (UPSC CSE 2016)

(a) Iran

(b) Saudi Arabia

(c) Oman

(d) Kuwait