India has questioned the United Nations' (UN) rush to declare climate change an international security issue, potentially granting the Security Council the authority to act on it, and has highlighted the pitfalls in the approach. According to India, a "simple Council decision" to take over climate change enforcement would jeopardise the Paris Agreement and multilateral efforts to find solutions. Climate change is a global security threat in the twenty-first century. Climate change refers to the periodic modification of Earth's climate caused by changes in the atmosphere as well as interactions between the atmosphere and various other geological, chemical, biological, and geographical factors within the Earth's system. In this article, we will discuss Observed Climate and Weather Changes in India which will be helpful for UPSC exam preparation.

Causes of Climate Change

Natural Causes

• Continental Drift: For millions of years, the movement of the tectonic plates has occurred. The movement of these plates causes changes in the physical characteristics of the landmass as well as the location of water bodies on the earth's surface.
  • This causes a shift in weather patterns, which contributes to climate change over time.
• Plate Tectonics: Plate displacement is caused by the continuous change in temperature of the core of the Earth's surface.
  • This has an impact on the local temperature of the environment as well as other codependent environmental elements, which causes climate change.
• Volcanic Activity: Although a volcano's eruption lasts only a few minutes, the consequences might last for years.
  • A vast amount of carbon dioxide, dust particles, aerosol droplets, and other greenhouse gases enter the earth's atmosphere when lava erupts from a volcano.
  • These gases, when discharged in high concentrations, potentially warm the earth's atmospheric layers and contribute to global warming. As a result, it causes climate change.
• Ocean Currents: The horizontal movement of winds opposes the natural flow of ocean currents. As a result, it causes temperature variation, which leads to a change in the climate of the specific geographic region.
• Variation in Earth’s Orbit: The seasonal distribution of sunlight reaching the Earth's surface is affected by the Earth's orbit, causing an impact on geographical and seasonal variation. Thus contributing to climate change.

Anthropogenic Causes

• Greenhouse gases: Greenhouse gases are gases that absorb heat radiation from the sun and cause an increase in the temperature of the Earth's surface.
  • Carbon dioxide, chlorofluorocarbons, water vapours, methane, and nitrous oxide are examples.
  • Because of industrialisation, deforestation, and urbanisation, the concentrations of these gases in the atmosphere are increasing day by day, contributing to global warming resulting in climate change.
• Land-use Pattern: Large scale industrial use of land results in deforestation, and changes in agricultural patterns result in higher amounts of greenhouse gases.
  • Cutting trees means losing the ability to cool the climate, which results in higher carbon dioxide levels. These overall factors contribute to climate change.
• Atmospheric Aerosols: Aerosols are extremely small liquid particles that are trapped in the Earth's atmosphere.
  • Their presence can be induced by a variety of activities, including coal combustion, the combustion of plants grown with ammonia-containing fertilisers, biomass combustion, and other industrial processes.
  • They scatter and absorb solar and infrared radiation, causing the temperature of atmospheric layers to fluctuate substantially.
  • They also have an impact on the physical and chemical composition of clouds, as well as cloud formation. As a result, it is also responsible for climate change.

Climate Change in India

• Climate change is having a significant impact on India, which is ranked seventh among the countries most affected by climate change in 2019.
• Each year, India emits about 3 gigatonnes (Gt) CO2eq of greenhouse gases; roughly two and a half tonnes per person, which is less than the global average.
• Despite having 17% of the world's population, the country emits 7% of global emissions. Temperature rises on the Tibetan Plateau are causing Himalayan glaciers to retreat, putting the Ganges, Brahmaputra, Yamuna, and other major rivers at risk.
• According to a World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) report from 2007, the Indus River may run dry for the same reason.
• Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of heat waves in India.
• Severe landslides and floods are expected to become more common in states such as Assam. Temperatures in India increased by 0.7°C (1.3°F) between 1901 and 2018.
• According to current projections, the number and severity of droughts in India will have significantly increased by the end of the century.

Observed Climate and Weather Changes in India

Surface Temperature

• Surface air temperatures have increased by — 0.4° C at the national level over the last century.
• Warming has been observed along the west coast of India, as well as in central India, the interior peninsula, and north-eastern India.
• However, cooling trends have been observed in parts of north-west India and south India.

Rainfall

• While there is no discernible trend in observed monsoon rainfall across India, regional monsoon variations have been documented.
• A trend of increasing monsoon seasonal rainfall has been observed along the west coast, northern Andhra Pradesh, and north-western India (+10% to +12% of the normal over the last 100 years).
• A trend of decreasing monsoon seasonal rainfall has been observed over eastern Madhya Pradesh, north-eastern India, and some parts of Gujarat and Kerala (-6% to -8% of the normal over the last 100 years).

Extreme Weather Events

• Instrument records from the past 130 years show no discernible long-term trend in the frequency of large-scale droughts and floods.
• Trends are observed in multi-decadal periods of more frequent droughts followed by less severe droughts.
• The frequency of severe storms along the coast has been increasing at a rate of 0.011 events per year.
• While West Bengal and Gujarat have seen increases, Orissa has seen a decrease.

Rise in Sea Level

• The records of coastal tide gauges in the north Indian Ocean for more than 40 years show that sea level rise was between 1.06-1.75 mm per year.
• These rates are consistent with IPCC estimates of 1-2 mm per year global sea level rise.

Impact on Himalayan Glaciers

• The Himalayas have one of the most extensive snow and ice resources, and its glaciers supply water to perennial rivers such as the Indus, Ganga, and Brahmaputra.
• Glacial melt may have an impact on their long-term lean-season flows, which could have a negative impact on the economy in terms of water availability and hydropower generation.
• The available monitoring data on Himalayan glaciers show that, while some glaciers have receded in some Himalayan regions in recent years, the trend is not consistent across the entire mountain chain.
• As a result, it is too early to establish long-term trends or their causation, for which there are several hypotheses.

Impact of Climate Change in India

Impact on Indian Agriculture

• India's agriculture sector is vulnerable to climate change. Higher temperatures reduce crop yields and promote weed and pest growth.
• Climate change, both in terms of temperature rise and changes in water availability, can have a negative impact on irrigated crop yields across agro-ecological regions.
• Rainfed agriculture will be most affected by rainfall variability and a reduction in the number of rainy days.
• The National Innovations in Climate Resilient Agriculture (NICRA) project found that climate change is expected to affect yields, particularly in crops such as rice, wheat, and maize.

Impact on Water Situation in India

• A water crisis occurs when there is a greater demand for drinking water than there is supply. Climate change is altering the water cycle.
• The hydrologic cycles of evaporation, precipitation, runoff, and evaporation, which generate runoff in rivers and streams, are critical for agriculture and forests.
• With rising temperatures, the rate of evapotranspiration from the land, vegetation, and oceans is increasing. More evaporation means faster drying of land water.
• Unfortunately, it contributes to increased moisture retention in the warmer atmosphere, which eventually leads to more precipitation.
• A warmer climate means more rain and less snow. A higher amount of rainfall increases the risk of flooding.
• Unfortunately, some areas in India may bear the brunt of climate change, with less precipitation. With shorter rain seasons, there is a greater chance of longer periods of severe drought.
• As a result, the need for irrigation will increase, raising water demands even higher. This will set off a downward spiral of water scarcity.
• Changes in temperature and circulation patterns caused by climate change are expected to alter the amount and intensity of precipitation.
• Some areas are expected to dry out further, while others will remain wet. Unfortunately, such precipitation forecasts are already a reality.
• According to statistics, per capita water availability has decreased by 70% since 1950. According to the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, the hydrological cycle will become more intense, with an increase in annual average rainfall.

Impact on Coastal States in India

• Climate models, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), are consistent with observations of ocean temperature and indicate that thermal expansion will continue to contribute to sea-level rise over the next 100 years.
• Because deep-ocean temperatures change slowly, thermal expansion would continue for many centuries even if greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere were stabilised.
• As a result, rising temperatures and sea-level rise are likely to remain major risk factors for coastal cities in India, where one-third of the population lives.
• This regional temperature rise, combined with changes in both the global climate system and the Indian Ocean monsoon system, may result in a 12.3 percent increase in annual precipitation by 2080, up from the 3.7 percent change predicted for the 2020s.
• Even more concerning, it is estimated that many regions in India's semi-arid and drought-prone central region will experience a simultaneous 5-25% decrease in precipitation.

India's Response to Climate Change

National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC)

• It outlines current and future policies and programmes addressing climate mitigation and adaptation.
• The Action Plan identifies eight core "national missions" that will run through 2017 - Solar Energy, Enhanced Energy Efficiency, Sustainable Habitat, Water, Sustaining the Himalayan Ecosystem, Green India, Sustainable Agriculture, and Strategic Knowledge for Climate Change.
• The majority of these missions have strong adaptation imperatives.

National Clean Energy Fund

• The Indian government established the National Clean Energy Fund (NCEF) in 2010 to finance and promote clean energy initiatives, as well as to fund clean energy research in the country.
• The fund's corpus is built by levying a cess of INR 50 (subsequently increased to INR 100 in 2014) per tonne of coal produced domestically or imported.

The Paris Agreement

• India has made three commitments under the Paris Agreement.
• By 2030, India's GDP-related greenhouse gas emissions will be reduced by 33-35 percent compared to 2005 levels.
• Furthermore, non-fossil fuels would account for 40% of India's power capacity.
• Simultaneously, by 2030, India will have created an additional 'carbon sink' of 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent through increased forest and tree cover.

The International Solar Alliance

• (ISA) was launched on November 30, 2015, at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris, in the presence of Mr. Ban Ki Moon, former Secretary-General of the United Nations.
• The primary goal of this process is to provide "clean and affordable energy" to the masses, which can then provide "sustainable security."
• Solar energy is an important component of RE that is gaining attention from policymakers and scientists as an alternative source due to its greater "availability" and "affordability."
• The International Solar Alliance (ISA) is being formed at a time when there is a growing demand for RE as an alternative source of energy on a global and regional scale.

Bharat Stage (BS) Emission Norms

• Vehicle emissions are one of the leading causes of air pollution, prompting the government to implement the BS 2000 (Bharat Stage 1) vehicle emission norms in April 2000, followed by BS-II in 2005.
• In 2010, BS-III went nationwide. However, in 2016, the government decided to follow global best practises and jump to BS-VI standards by skipping BS V entirely.

Conclusion

Since the mid-twentieth century, India has seen an increase in average temperature, a decrease in monsoon precipitation, an increase in extreme temperature and rainfall events, droughts, and sea levels, and an increase in the intensity of severe cyclones, among other changes in the monsoon system. There is compelling scientific evidence that human activities have influenced these regional climate changes. Human-caused climate change is expected to continue throughout the twenty-first century. To improve the accuracy of future climate projections, particularly in the context of regional forecasts, it is critical to develop strategic approaches for improving knowledge of Earth system processes and to continue improving observation systems and climate models.

FAQs

Question. What are the key climate and weather changes observed in India over the past few decades?

Question. How is the monsoon season in India changing due to climate change?

Question. How have heatwaves in India changed in recent years?

Question. How is climate change affecting the monsoon and agriculture in India?

Question. What role do glaciers play in India's water resources and how is climate change affecting them?

MCQs

1. What is the observed trend in temperature in India in recent years?

A) Decrease in temperature

B) Stable temperature

C) Increase in temperature

D) No change in temperature

2. How has the monsoon season in India changed in recent years?

A) Earlier onset and uniform rainfall

B) Delayed onset and erratic rainfall

C) No change in onset and rainfall

D) Shorter monsoon period

3. What is the impact of increased heatwaves in India?

A) Improved agricultural productivity

B) Increased health issues and stress on energy demand

C) No significant impact

D) Decreased urban temperatures

4. How are glaciers in the Himalayas affecting water resources in India?

A) Glaciers are growing and increasing water supply

B) Glaciers are shrinking and reducing water supply

C) Glaciers are unaffected by climate change

D) Glaciers are becoming more stable

5. Which of the following is an effect of erratic rainfall on agriculture in India?

A) Increased agricultural productivity

B) Unpredictable crop yields

C) Enhanced pest control

D) Reduced reliance on water resources

GS Mains Questions and Model Answers

Q1: Discuss the observed changes in weather patterns and their impact on agriculture in India.

Answer: India has observed significant changes in its weather patterns in recent years, which have had profound effects on agriculture:

• Erratic Rainfall: Erratic rainfall due to climate change has led to both delays in monsoon and uneven distribution of rainfall across regions. This is especially problematic for rainfed agriculture, which depends on timely and sufficient rainfall.
• Decreased Crop Yields: Changes in rainfall and temperature have negatively impacted the yield of key crops like rice, wheat, and maize. Areas that are already vulnerable to drought or flooding are being hit harder.
• Pest and Disease Outbreaks: Increased temperatures have created a favorable environment for pests and diseases, which have harmed crops and increased the need for pesticides.
• Water Scarcity: The shrinking of Himalayan glaciers and erratic rainfall patterns are exacerbating water scarcity, particularly in areas that rely on glacial meltwater for irrigation.

The impact of these changes on agriculture is creating challenges for India’s food security, and long-term adaptations are necessary to mitigate these effects.

Q2: Analyze the effects of climate change on India's water resources and the measures required to adapt.

Answer: The effects of climate change on India’s water resources are becoming increasingly visible:

• Melting of Glaciers: India’s Himalayan glaciers, which feed major rivers, are melting at an accelerated rate. This will lead to reduced river flows and water shortages, especially in northern India.
• Shifting Rainfall Patterns: Erratic monsoon patterns, with some regions receiving excessive rainfall and others facing drought, are disrupting groundwater recharge and affecting surface water availability.
• Declining Groundwater Levels: Over-extraction of groundwater for irrigation is leading to falling water tables in many regions, especially in North India.
• Increased Flooding: Heavy rainfall in short periods has led to more frequent flooding, which damages infrastructure and crops.

Adaptation measures include:

• Water Conservation: Adoption of rainwater harvesting, efficient irrigation techniques, and water management practices.
• Sustainable Water Use: Encouraging water-efficient farming techniques and reducing water wastage.
• Restoration of Ecosystems: Protecting and restoring wetlands and forest ecosystems that play a crucial role in water regulation.
• Policy Interventions: Developing comprehensive policies for water management, including regulating groundwater use and improving water distribution networks.

Q3: Evaluate the role of the government in addressing the observed climate and weather changes in India.

Answer: The Indian government plays a crucial role in addressing climate and weather changes through:

• Policy Initiatives: Implementation of policies like the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) and the National Adaptation Fund for Climate Change (NAFCC) to promote sustainable development and climate resilience.
• Disaster Management: The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) helps mitigate the impact of extreme weather events like floods and cyclones through early warning systems and preparedness programs.
• Promoting Renewable Energy: The government has made efforts to reduce dependence on fossil fuels by promoting solar, wind, and hydro power through schemes like the National Solar Mission.
• Afforestation and Green Cover: The government has launched initiatives like the Green India Mission to promote afforestation and carbon sequestration.
• Agricultural Support: Providing subsidies and incentives for adopting climate-resilient agricultural practices and improving irrigation systems.

These efforts aim to build resilience against climate change and reduce the vulnerability of sectors such as agriculture, water resources, and infrastructure to climate-related disruptions.

Previous Year Questions on Observed Climate and Weather Changes in India

1. UPSC CSE 2020

Question: "Explain the impact of climate change on monsoon patterns in India."

Answer: Climate change has altered the timing, intensity, and distribution of rainfall in India. While some regions experience delayed monsoons, others see erratic rainfall patterns leading to flooding or droughts. This unpredictability has serious consequences for agriculture, particularly in rainfed regions, and challenges India's water management systems.

2. UPSC CSE 2019

Question: "Discuss the observed changes in temperature and rainfall patterns in India and their implications on agriculture."

Answer: India has witnessed rising temperatures and shifting rainfall patterns, which are adversely affecting agriculture. Changes in the onset and intensity of the monsoon have led to reduced crop yields, increased pest infestations, and rising instances of drought and flooding, threatening food security and agricultural livelihoods.