The Myanmar junta's empty gesture

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(Source: The Hindu, 08/16/23)

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Why in the news?

• The top decision makers of the army of Myanmar, currently bunkered in the capital, Naypyidaw, struggle to maintain control of enough territory to seriously contemplate even a heavily staged nationwide poll.
• With things being so unstable, many people are fleeing the country or joining armed groups.
• The military recently made headlines by announcing a reduction in the jail terms of figures such as Aung San Suu Kyi. However, this move should not be mistaken for a change in the military’s behavior. Such amnesties have been used in the past to create a façade of goodwill, both domestically and internationally.

Transition of Military rule in Myanmar and issues

• In 1948, the nation declared independence from the British. From 1962 to 2011, it was administered by the military forces.
• The military leadership (Junta) decided to move the country towards democracy in 2010. Despite the fact that the military forces remained dominant, political opponents were liberated and elections were permitted.
• Also drafted a law that is 75% seats for the elected members and 25% seats for the military officials.
• The National League of Democracy (NLD) won the 2015 election, the country's first free and fair election in which many parties competed, and established the government, increasing optimism that the country is on its road to full democratic transition.
• The Myanmar military (also known as the Tatmataw) conducted a coup against the civilian government on 1 February 2021, calling the November 2020 general election results illegitimate and proclaiming a state of emergency. And arrested the democratic leaders.
• Due to the state emergency, protests started around the country against the military and their leadership. But the military still doesn't have control over large parts of the country.
• Recently, Myanmar's military regime commuted Aung San Suu Kyi's prison sentence by six years after the 78-year-old leader of the country was deposed in a coup in February 2021.
• However, Aung San Suu Kyi is still facing a 27-year prison sentence on spurious allegations.

International organisations to bring normalcy in Myanmar

• In August 2022, ASEAN banned Myanmar's generals from attending meetings unless the organisation's ostensible peace plan made headway.
• Previously, in April 2021, ASEAN issued a five-point framework on the Myanmar conflict, which included:
  • Ending violence;
  • Organising a meaningful conversation among all stakeholders;
  • Appoint a designated ASEAN Envoy to facilitate the all-party engagement.
  • Acceptance of help;
  • The Special ASEAN Envoy will accompany the Military Leader to Myanmar.
• Maintaining contacts with China and Russia is an important strategy for Myanmar. Still, there is no clear road to full ASEAN membership while the officials commit such atrocities against their own people.
• The UN Security Council passed its first resolution on Myanmar in December 2022.
• The resolution called for the cessation of violence and the release of all political detainees, including Aung San Suu Kyi.
• India, along with Russia and China, had voted against the resolution.

India and Myanmar - Diplomatic view point

• India's stance towards Myanmar walks a fine line between democratic promises and regional security concerns. India needs Myanmar to go back to democracy.
• Border Control: Myanmarese citizens have been accused of inciting unrest in Manipur. Due to concerns about human trafficking and drug smuggling in Myanmar, India suspended the Free Movement Regime in September 2022.India's Myanmar policy walks a fine line between democratic promises and regional security concerns.
• Also India has a number of projects with Myanmar - Kaladan Multimodal project and India-Myanmar-Thailand highway project.
• In addition, if there is any insurgency in North-eastern regions, India can use Myanmar as a shelter.
• Influence of China on Myanmar: India's commitment to democracy in Myanmar runs against its security worries in the northeast and its complicated relationship with China.
  • The Sairang-Hmawngbuchhuah railway project, near the Myanmar border, is part of India's Act East Policy and intends to offset China's railway access in Myanmar via Yunnan and the planned China-Myanmar Economic Corridor.

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