The Geopolitical Fallout Of The Israel-Hamas War

Relevance: GS2- Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests, Indian diaspora.

(Source: The Hindu, 11/18/2023)

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Why in the news?

• This article discusses the Israel-Hamas conflict and its potential geopolitical implications in West Asia and the rest of the world.

What was the driving force of geopolitics in West Asia in recent years?

U.S.A.’s Strategic Shift

• Since the end of World War II, the United States, the reigning superpower of the region, had begun to shift its strategic focus to conventional rivals like Russia and China.
• At the same time it has attempted to bring the two pillars of its West Asia policy - Israel and the Gulf Arab states - together despite the stark differences between the policies of the two.
  • The result of these efforts is the Abraham Accords which have helped the US establish a common Jewish-Arab bloc.
• Since West Asia had been relatively peaceful over the years, this partnership would allow the USA to focus its resources on regions that were of greater concern to it.
• In 2023, the U.S.A. announced the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) as an alternative to China’s initiatives in the region.
  • This was an indicator of the U.S.A.’s belief in the Jewish-Arabic front as the initiative was based on Israel-Arab peace.

China’s growing influence

• The deprioritization of the region by the U.S.A. has provided China an opportunity to strengthen its influence in the strategically important region.
  • China has good ties with most Gulf Arab states as a result of which it has taken up a peacemaker role in the region, leading to the Iran-Saudi reconciliation.

What does Hamas say about the shifts?

• Iran-Saudi Arabia: Hamas, which is a Sunni Islamist militant group, has welcomed the partnership between Iran (Shia theocratic republic) and Saudi Arabia (Sunni monarchy).
  • Iran has been the patron of Hamas for a long time while Saudi Arabia has been critical of Hamas’s version of political Islam.
• Israel-Saudi Arabia: However, Hamas has criticized the normalization of ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia since no concessions have been made by Israel.
  • Israel has been occupying Palestinian territories since 1967.

Previous agreements in the region:

• Camp David Agreement(1978): Egypt stipulated that Israel sign the Framework For Peace Agreement before it signed the Camp David Agreement.
  • This later became the blueprint for the Oslo process in the 1990s.
• Jordan-Israel peace deal (1993): Jordan signed its peace treaty with Israel only after the first Oslo Accord was signed in 1993.
• Abraham Accords (2020): Israel did not make any concessions for Palestinians as part of the Accords signed by the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain and Morocco.

Why is West Asia significant for the USA and China?

• Energy: West Asian countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE are among the largest exporters of energy in the world.
  • This makes the region significant for the U.S.A. and its allies in light of the Russia-Ukraine war and its impact on energy security.
• Trade: West Asia is a vital trading partner for the U.S.A., China, and India.
  • It can also serve as a link between Europe and India as seen in the proposed India Middle East Economic Corridor.
• Radicalism and terror: Close cooperation with West Asian countries can serve as a counter to radicalization.
  • The presence of radical outfits like Hezbollah and Hamas and the ongoing strife in the region make the region a major security concern for the U.S.A. and China.
• The West Asian region has therefore emerged as another arena of geopolitical conflict between the U.S.A. and China over economic, strategic, and security concerns.

Hamas strategy and change in stance by Arab states

• The Arab states, especially Gulf Arabs, have indicated that they are willing to delink the Palestine question from their engagement with Israel.
• This has further boosted Israel’s efforts to localize the Palestine issue.
  • Israel believes that the issue should be treated as a security concern and that it should be able to continue its occupation of contested territories without any consequences.
• According to experts, the Toofan Al-Aqsa attack by Hamas aimed to re-regionalize the Palestine issues and prevent Israel’s attempts to localize the issue.
  • Hamas had expected to disrupt the Saudi-Israel peace bid as a consequence of the attacks.
• It was successful in de-localizing the issue since the Israeli response resulting in the deaths of at least 11,500 Palestinians including women and children has become an issue of global concern.

What is the perspective of the Arab states?

• Centrality of Israel-Palestine in West Asian geopolitics: The Gulf Arab states indicated their willingness to delink from the Palestine issue and establish new partnerships in the region.
  • However, the regional realities post the attacks have pushed the Israel-Palestine conflict back to the fore of West Asian politics.
• Pan-Arab sympathy for Palestine: The disproportionate and indiscriminate attack by Israel on Gaza has led to massive protests across West Asia.
  • This has led to significant pressure on the region’s monarchs and dictators to adopt a sympathetic position towards the distress faced by the Palestinians and an antipathetic one towards Israel.
• Iran factor: In the aftermath of the attacks, Iran has adopted a pro-Palestine stance and demanded collective action against Israel.
  • Iranian proxies in Yemen (Houthis) and Lebanon (Hezbollah) have launched attacks on Israel.
  • Iran has claimed leadership of the Islamic world by attempting to bridge the Shia-Sunni divide.
  • As a result, Saudi Arabia and the other Arab states have been posed with a difficult question.
  • They can either ignore the public anger against Israel and allow Iran to proceed with the planned peace agreement with Israel or return to the original King Abdullah Initiative.
  • The Islamic summit on Gaza convened by Saudi Arabia and attended by the Iranian President reiterated its call for the creation of a Palestine state based on the 1967 borders for peace and security in the region.
  • This has allowed Saudi Arabia to relink the Palestine issue and peace talks with Israel, which has adversely affected the ambitions of the USA and Israel.

Regional dynamics

• The U.S.A. has expressed hope that the Abraham Accords may be rebooted once the situation in Gaza is resolved.
  • However, Israel has claimed a continued security role in the region despite having withdrawn from the enclave in 2005.
  • Israel has also rejected the US proposal that Gaza should be controlled by the Palestinian Authority, which also governs the West Bank.
  • Experts have claimed that Israel’s occupation could lead to significant distress for the 2.2 million residents of the region.
• The China-mediated Iran-Saudi reconciliation was a setback for the U.S. amid increasing desires of the Arab states for autonomy.
  • The UAE and Saudi Arabia have refused to join American sanctions against Russia in the aftermath of the Ukraine war.
  • Similarly, Saudi Arabia has continued to cooperate with Russia through the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Plus despite the U.S.A.’s opposition.
• China is attempting to cement its presence in the Gulf and has undertaken steps such as the alleged proposal to build a military facility in the UAE.
  • The Israel-Hamas crisis has further expedited the tilt of the Arab states toward China, which can be seen as a victory for China in its geopolitical contest with the U.S.A.

Conclusion

• The derailment of the Saudi-Israel peace plan and potential synergies between Saudi Arabia and Iran on Israel could expose the limitations of the U.S. initiatives in the region such as the Abraham Accords and the expanding scope of Chinese initiatives.
• Although the situation in Gaza is similar to what it was prior to 2005, the geopolitics of the situation have transformed.
  • The U.S.A. is not the sole superpower of the region with a growing Russian and Chinese footprint and regional autonomy.
• Therefore, the U.S.A.’s decision to provide in-depth support to Israel has put it in a difficult position with respect to the other states in the region.

To learn more about the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, click the link.

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FAQs

MCQs

Question: Consider the following statements:

Statement-I: Israel has established diplomatic relations with some Arab States.

Statement-II: The ‘Arab Peace Initiative’ mediated by Saudi Arabia was signed by Israel and the Arab League.

Which one of the following is correct in respect of the above statements?

1. Both statement-I and Statement-II are correct and Statement-II is the correct explanation for Statement-I
2. Both Statement-I and Statement-II are correct and Statement-II is not the correct explanation for Statement-I
3. Statement-I is correct but Statement-II is incorrect.
4. Statement-I- is incorrect but Statement-II is correct.

Question: The term "two-state solution" is sometimes mentioned in the news in the context of the affairs of (UPSC CSE 2018)

(a) China

(b) Israel

(c) Iraq

(d) Yemen