India's reluctance to perceive any 'existential threat' inevitably made the multilateral path to nuclear security a 'default option' until it decided to cross the nuclear Rubicon in 1998. Identify and analyze some of the major reasons behind this shift in India's position on the nuclear question.
India’s overt emergence as a nuclear weapons state in 1998, crossing the “nuclear Rubicon” with the Pokhran II tests, marked a decisive shift from decades of ambiguity. Since its 1974 “peaceful nuclear explosion” (Pokhran I), India had refused to sign the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) as a non-nuclear weapon state while avoiding open declaration of its arsenal. For years, New Delhi championed universal disarmament and multilateral solutions, emphasizing that nuclear weapons did not address its security needs. Yet by the 1990s, this stance became increasingly untenable.
The evolving security environment, particularly the China factor, was crucial. China’s continued modernization of its nuclear arsenal, combined with its nuclear and missile assistance to Pakistan, created an existential threat India could not offset through conventional means. Simultaneously, Pakistan’s covert nuclear program—by then operational with likely Chinese backing—meant India faced a nuclearized neighborhood on both fronts, making deterrence through ambiguity insufficient.
The failure of global disarmament further eroded India’s patience. The 1995 indefinite extension of the NPT entrenched its discriminatory framework, and the proposed Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) threatened to freeze India’s capabilities permanently. With little movement from the P5 toward genuine disarmament, India concluded that relying on multilateralism endangered its security.
Beyond survival, aspirations of great power status also shaped India’s calculus. Possessing a declared arsenal was seen as essential for global credibility, enabling India to assert autonomy and influence in world affairs. Domestic politics added another layer: Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s government viewed the tests as both fulfillment of a long-standing party commitment and a rallying point for national pride.
Thus, Pokhran II was not merely about weaponization but about autonomy, deterrence, and ambition. By shifting from “default multilateralism” to overt nuclear status, India sought security in a hostile environment while claiming its rightful place among responsible global powers.
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Harsh Raj
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