In Flow Model, associated with forecasting personnel needs, the forecaster will- A. Determine the time that should be covered. B. Establish categories to which employees can be assigned. C. Will not estimate the probability of transition. D. Will solicit estimate of personnel needed from group of exports. E. Count annual movements among states for several time period. Choose the correct answer from the options given below:
A, B and E Only
A, B and E only — option 3.
What the flow model is. A method of forecasting the internal supply of personnel — also called a Markov or transition model. It treats the workforce as a set of states — grades, jobs, locations, or the state of having left — and studies how people flow between them over time. From past movement rates it projects how many employees will be in each state at a future date.
| Step | What the forecaster does |
|---|---|
| A — Determine the time covered | Fix the length of the period. Short periods give more stable estimates; long ones are more useful but less reliable |
| B — Establish the categories or states | Define the states to which every employee can be unambiguously assigned. They must be mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive, or the flows will not add up |
| E — Count annual movements among states over several periods | Tabulate the historical flows — promotions, transfers, demotions, exits — over several periods, so that the rates are averages rather than the accident of one year |
Why C and D are wrong. Each contradicts the method :
| Item | Why it fails |
|---|---|
| C — will not estimate the probability of transition | The opposite of the truth. Transition probabilities are the whole point of the model — the counted movements are converted into probabilities of moving from each state to each other state, and those probabilities are what generate the forecast |
| D — solicit estimates from a group of experts | That is the Delphi technique or expert-opinion method — a judgemental approach. The flow model is statistical, working from recorded movements, not from opinion |
Spotting that C is a negation and D belongs to a different method is enough: both appear in options 1, 2 and 4, leaving only option 3.
What the model assumes, and its limits. It assumes past transition rates continue — which fails after a restructuring, a change of promotion policy or a labour-market shift — and it needs a reasonably large workforce for the rates to be stable. It is therefore used with, not instead of, judgemental methods.
Where it sits in HR planning : demand forecasting estimates how many people will be needed; the flow model estimates how many will be available internally; and the gap between them drives recruitment or redeployment.
Hence, the answer is A, B and E Only.
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