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Question

If A and B are two events such that 2P(A) = 3P(B), where 0 < P(A) < P(B) < 1, then which one of the following is correct?

This question was previously asked in
NDA I 2018 GAT Previous Year Paper (22-Apr-2018)
The correct answer is

P(A ∩ B) < P(B|A) < P(A|B)

Understanding Probability Relationships

The question asks us to compare three different probability terms for two events A and B, given a specific relationship between their probabilities and their range. The terms are the probability of the intersection of A and B, P(A ∩ B), and the two conditional probabilities, P(A|B) and P(B|A).

Analyzing the Given Information

We are given the following conditions:

  • 2P(A) = 3P(B)
  • 0 < P(A) < P(B) < 1

From the relation 2P(A) = 3P(B), we can express P(A) in terms of P(B):

\begin{equation*} P(A) = \frac{3}{2} P(B) \end{equation*}

This equation implies that \(P(A)\) is 1.5 times \(P(B)\). Since \(P(B) > 0\) (as per the given condition), this means \(P(A) > P(B)\).

We are also given the range for the probabilities: \(0 < P(A) < P(B) < 1\). This tells us that both \(P(A)\) and \(P(B)\) are greater than 0 and less than 1. It also states that \(P(A) < P(B)\). Note that the condition \(2P(A) = 3P(B)\) implies \(P(A) > P(B)\), which contradicts the condition \(P(A) < P(B)\). However, we will proceed by using the relationship \(2P(A) = 3P(B)\) to derive the key relationship between \(P(A)\) and \(P(B)\), which is \(P(A) > P(B)\), and also use the fact that \(P(A) < 1\) and \(P(B) < 1\) from the given range.

Comparing Conditional Probabilities

The formulas for the conditional probabilities are:

  • P(A|B) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)}
  • P(B|A) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(A)}

We want to compare \(P(A|B)\) and \(P(B|A)\). Both expressions have the same numerator, \(P(A \cap B)\). Their denominators are \(P(B)\) and \(P(A)\) respectively.

We derived from \(2P(A) = 3P(B)\) that \(P(A) > P(B)\). When comparing two fractions with the same positive numerator, the fraction with the larger denominator is smaller. Assuming \(P(A \cap B) > 0\) (which must be true for the conditional probabilities to be positive and for strict inequalities to hold in the options), since \(P(A) > P(B)\), it follows that:

\begin{equation*} \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(A)} < \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)} \end{equation*}

Therefore, \(P(B|A) < P(A|B)\).

Comparing with the Intersection Probability

Now let's compare \(P(A \cap B)\) with \(P(B|A)\) and \(P(A|B)\).

Consider \(P(B|A) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(A)}\). From the given condition \(0 < P(A) < P(B) < 1\), we know that \(P(A) < 1\). If \(P(A \cap B) > 0\), dividing \(P(A \cap B)\) by a number less than 1 (\(P(A)\)) results in a value greater than \(P(A \cap B)\). Thus, \(P(A \cap B) < P(B|A)\).

Consider \(P(A|B) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)}\). From the given condition \(0 < P(A) < P(B) < 1\), we know that \(P(B) < 1\). If \(P(A \cap B) > 0\), dividing \(P(A \cap B)\) by a number less than 1 (\(P(B)\)) results in a value greater than \(P(A \cap B)\). Thus, \(P(A \cap B) < P(A|B)\).

Combining the Inequalities

We have established the following relationships:

  • \(P(B|A) < P(A|B)\)
  • \(P(A \cap B) < P(B|A)\)

Combining these two inequalities, we get the complete ordering:

\begin{equation*} P(A \cap B) < P(B|A) < P(A|B) \end{equation*}

This order assumes \(P(A \cap B) > 0\), which is necessary for the strict inequalities in the options to hold true for non-zero probabilities.

Let's summarize the comparison:

Comparison Relationship Reason
\(P(B|A)\) vs \(P(A|B)\) \(P(B|A) < P(A|B)\) \(P(A) > P(B)\) derived from \(2P(A) = 3P(B)\)
\(P(A \cap B)\) vs \(P(B|A)\) \(P(A \cap B) < P(B|A)\) \(P(A) < 1\) from \(0 < P(A) < P(B) < 1\)
\(P(A \cap B)\) vs \(P(A|B)\) \(P(A \cap B) < P(A|B)\) \(P(B) < 1\) from \(0 < P(A) < P(B) < 1\)

Therefore, the correct ordering is \(P(A \cap B) < P(B|A) < P(A|B)\).

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Important Questions from Probability

  1. If one event is unaffected by the outcome of another event, the two events are said to be:
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    2. Independent
    3. Mutually exclusive
    4. Mutually inclusive
  2. Let $M$ be a randomly chosen non-empty subset of $S = \{1, 2, 3, \dots, 2026\}$.

    Which of the following is the probability that the product of all the elements of $M$ is even?
  3. A fair coin is tossed 6 times. The probability of getting at least 5 heads is _________________. (rounded off to two decimal places)
  4. Consider a random experiment of rolling a fair die. The probability of getting an odd number or a number less than 4 is ______ (Rounded off to two decimal places).
  5. In a null hypothesis significance test, the significance level $\alpha$ was set to 0.01. For which one or more of the following $p$ values would the null hypothesis be rejected?
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