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Question

Let $X$ be a random sample of size $1$ from a Cauchy distribution with probability density function 

$f_\theta(x) = \frac{1}{\pi} \left(\frac{1}{1 + (x-\theta)^2}\right)$, $-\infty < x < \infty$, where $\theta \in (-\infty, \infty)$. For testing $H_0: \theta = -1$ against $H_1: \theta = 0$, the following test is suggested. 

Reject $H_0$ if $\frac{X}{\sqrt{1+X^2}} > C$, otherwise do not reject $H_0$. 

What is the value of $C$ so that the power of the test is $0.5$?

The correct answer is
$0$

The problem asks for the value of C such that the power of the suggested test is 0.5.

The test statistic is $T(X) = \frac{X}{\sqrt{1+X^2}}$. The hypothesis is $H_0: \theta = -1$ versus $H_1: \theta = 0$. The test rejects $H_0$ if $T(X) > C$. The power of the test is defined as the probability of rejecting $H_0$ when $H_1$ is true.

Power = $P(\text{Reject } H_0 | H_1 \text{ is true}) = P\left(\frac{X}{\sqrt{1+X^2}} > C | \theta = 0\right)$.

We are given that the power should be 0.5.

Distribution of the Test Statistic under H1

Under $H_1$, we have $\theta = 0$. The random variable $X$ follows a Cauchy distribution with location parameter 0 and scale 1, i.e., $X \sim \text{Cauchy}(0, 1)$. The probability density function (PDF) is $f_0(x) = \frac{1}{\pi (1+x^2)}$.

Let $Y = \frac{X}{\sqrt{1+X^2}}$. We need to find the distribution of $Y$ when $X \sim \text{Cauchy}(0, 1)$. A convenient transformation is $X = \tan(Z)$, where $Z$ follows a uniform distribution on $(-\frac{\pi}{2}, \frac{\pi}{2})$, i.e., $Z \sim U(-\frac{\pi}{2}, \frac{\pi}{2})$.

Under this transformation, the test statistic becomes:

$Y = \frac{\tan(Z)}{\sqrt{1+\tan^2(Z)}} = \frac{\tan(Z)}{\sec(Z)} = \sin(Z)$.

Since $Z \sim U(-\frac{\pi}{2}, \frac{\pi}{2})$, its PDF is $f_Z(z) = \frac{1}{\pi}$ for $z \in (-\frac{\pi}{2}, \frac{\pi}{2})$. The range of $Y = \sin(Z)$ is $(-1, 1)$.

The PDF of $Y$ can be found using the transformation $Y = \sin(Z)$. The CDF of $Y$ is $F_Y(y) = P(Y \le y) = P(\sin(Z) \le y)$. For $y \in (-1, 1)$, $P(\sin(Z) \le y) = P(Z \le \arcsin(y)) = \int_{-\pi/2}^{\arcsin(y)} \frac{1}{\pi} dz = \frac{1}{\pi} (\arcsin(y) + \frac{\pi}{2})$.

The PDF of $Y$ is the derivative of the CDF:

$f_Y(y) = \frac{d}{dy} F_Y(y) = \frac{1}{\pi} \frac{1}{\sqrt{1-y^2}}$, for $y \in (-1, 1)$.

Calculating the Value of C

We need to find $C$ such that $P(Y > C) = 0.5$. Using the PDF of $Y$:

$ P(Y > C) = \int_C^1 f_Y(y) dy = \int_C^1 \frac{1}{\pi \sqrt{1-y^2}} dy $

Set this equal to 0.5:

$ \int_C^1 \frac{1}{\pi \sqrt{1-y^2}} dy = 0.5 $

Evaluate the integral:

$ \frac{1}{\pi} [\arcsin(y)]_C^1 = 0.5 $

$ \frac{1}{\pi} (\arcsin(1) - \arcsin(C)) = 0.5 $

$ \frac{1}{\pi} \left(\frac{\pi}{2} - \arcsin(C)\right) = 0.5 $

Multiply both sides by $\pi$:

$ \frac{\pi}{2} - \arcsin(C) = \frac{\pi}{2} $

Solve for $\arcsin(C)$:

$ \arcsin(C) = 0 $

Therefore, $C = \sin(0) = 0$.

Alternative Method (Symmetry)

The PDF $f_Y(y) = \frac{1}{\pi \sqrt{1-y^2}}$ is symmetric about $y=0$. Since the total probability $\int_{-1}^1 f_Y(y) dy = 1$, the median of the distribution is 0.

The condition for the power to be 0.5 is $P(Y > C) = 0.5$. Since 0 is the median, $P(Y > 0) = 0.5$. Therefore, $C=0$.

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Important Questions from Discrete Probability

  1. Suppose two fair dice are thrown independently at random. Let $X$ and $Y$ be the numbers on the upper face of the first die and that of the second die, respectively. Then which of the following statements are true?
  2. A box contains 40 numbered red balls and 60 numbered black balls. From the box, balls are drawn one by one at random without replacement till all the balls are drawn. The probability that the last ball drawn is black equals
  3. Ten balls are put in 6 slots at random. Then the expected total number of balls in the two extreme slots is

  4. There are five empty boxes. Balls are placed independently one after another in randomly selected boxes. The probability that the fourth ball is the first to be placed in an occupied box equals
  5. Suppose $A, B, C$ are events in a common probability space with 

    $P(A) = 0.2, \ P(B) = 0.2, \ P(C) = 0.3$, $P(A \cap B) = 0.1, \ P(A \cap C) = 0.1, \ P(B \cap C) = 0.1$. 

    Which of the following are possible values of $P(A \cup B \cup C)$?

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