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Question

There are five empty boxes. Balls are placed independently one after another in randomly selected boxes. The probability that the fourth ball is the first to be placed in an occupied box equals

The correct answer is
$\frac{4}{5} \left(\frac{3}{5}\right)^2$

To solve this problem, we need to calculate the probability that the fourth ball is the first one placed in an already occupied box, given that balls are placed independently and randomly into one of the five boxes.

Let's break down the problem:

  1. Initially, all five boxes are empty. When placing the first ball, it will definitely occupy an empty box because all are empty.
  2. Similarly, when placing the second ball, there are 4 empty boxes left, so it still has a chance of landing in an empty box. The probability that it lands in an empty box is \(\frac{4}{5}\).
  3. For the third ball, assuming the second ball also went into an empty box, there are 3 empty boxes remaining. Hence, the probability that the third ball also finds an empty box is \(\frac{3}{5}\).
  4. Now, the fourth ball will be placed. To find the probability that it is the first to land in an occupied box, it should not land in an empty box available. Hence:
    • The probability that the fourth ball goes into an occupied box is simply the complement of it going into an empty box.
    • So, the probability it will not land in an empty box is \(\frac{2}{5}\), because two boxes are already occupied by the first three balls.

So, for the fourth ball to be the first to land in an occupied box, it must follow a sequence where the first three balls find empty boxes and then it lands in an occupied one, which is given by:

\(\left(\frac{4}{5}\right) \times \left(\frac{3}{5}\right) \times \left(\frac{2}{5}\right)\) for the first three balls finding empty boxes, and finally, the probability of landing in an occupied is \(\frac{2}{5}\).

This gives a total probability of:

\(\left(\frac{4}{5}\right) \times \left(\frac{3}{5}\right)^2\)

Thus, the correct answer is \(\frac{4}{5} \left(\frac{3}{5}\right)^2\), which is the correct option.

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Important Questions from Discrete Probability

  1. Suppose two fair dice are thrown independently at random. Let $X$ and $Y$ be the numbers on the upper face of the first die and that of the second die, respectively. Then which of the following statements are true?
  2. A box contains 40 numbered red balls and 60 numbered black balls. From the box, balls are drawn one by one at random without replacement till all the balls are drawn. The probability that the last ball drawn is black equals
  3. Ten balls are put in 6 slots at random. Then the expected total number of balls in the two extreme slots is

  4. Suppose $A, B, C$ are events in a common probability space with 

    $P(A) = 0.2, \ P(B) = 0.2, \ P(C) = 0.3$, $P(A \cap B) = 0.1, \ P(A \cap C) = 0.1, \ P(B \cap C) = 0.1$. 

    Which of the following are possible values of $P(A \cup B \cup C)$?

  5. Let $S$ be the set of all $3 \times 3$ matrices having $3$ entries equal to $1$ and $6$ entries equal to $0$. A matrix $M$ is picked uniformly at random from the set $S$. Then
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