Biasing Effect in Estimation Explained
This question explores a common cognitive bias known as the anchoring and adjustment heuristic.
Anchoring and Adjustment: This bias occurs when people rely too heavily on the first piece of information they receive (the "anchor") when making decisions. They then make adjustments based on this anchor, but these adjustments are often insufficient.
Applying the Heuristic to the Products
In the experiment:
- Group 1 (Descending Order): Estimated $8 \times 7 \times 6 \times 5 \times 4 \times 3 \times 2 \times 1$. The initial numbers (8, 7, 6, 5) provide a high starting point (anchor).
- Group 2 (Ascending Order): Estimated $1 \times 2 \times 3 \times 4 \times 5 \times 6 \times 7 \times 8$. The initial numbers (1, 2, 3, 4) provide a low starting point (anchor).
Reasoning for Different Estimates
Because Group 1 started with larger numbers, their initial anchor was significantly higher. Although both groups had limited time (5 seconds) and likely made insufficient adjustments, the adjustments made from the higher anchor resulted in a larger final estimate compared to the adjustments made from the lower anchor by Group 2. The difference in estimates arises because the initial number sequence influenced the starting point, and subsequent adjustments were inadequate to correct fully for the initial anchor's magnitude.
Therefore, the biasing effect observed is due to the process of Adjustment from an initial anchor.
Important Questions from Analytical Decision Making (Notes)
_________________ psychology is a branch in which the findings of psychology are applied in the field of education.
- Prof. Murthy likes to let her students choose who their partners will be; however, no pair of students may work together for more than seven class periods in a row. Alice and Bob have worked together for seven class periods in a row. Calvin and Denny have worked together for three class periods in a row. Calvin does not want to work with Alice. Who should be assigned to work with Bob?
- Of four agents Alpha, Beta, Gamma and Delta, three have to be sent together on a mission. If Alpha and Beta cannot go together, Beta and Gamma cannot go together and Gamma and Delta cannot go together, then which of the following holds?
Match List-I with List-II and select the correct answer by choosing from the codes given below :
List – I
(Phenomenon)List – II
(Explanation)a. Thinking i. Process of choosing between two or more alternatives on the basis of information about them b. Reasoning ii. Processing information in various ways to move towards a desired goal c. Decision making iii. Mental activity through which we transform available information in order to reach conclusion d. Problem solving iv. An activity that involves the manipulation of mental representation of various features of the external world Match the following gases with their proportion.
Gases Percentage by volume 1. Argon (a) 0.03 2. Carbon dioxide (b) 0.0018 3. Hydrogen (c) 0.94 4. Neon (d) 0.01
