Biasing Effect in Estimation Explained
This question explores a common cognitive bias known as the anchoring and adjustment heuristic.
Anchoring and Adjustment: This bias occurs when people rely too heavily on the first piece of information they receive (the "anchor") when making decisions. They then make adjustments based on this anchor, but these adjustments are often insufficient.
Applying the Heuristic to the Products
In the experiment:
- Group 1 (Descending Order): Estimated $8 \times 7 \times 6 \times 5 \times 4 \times 3 \times 2 \times 1$. The initial numbers (8, 7, 6, 5) provide a high starting point (anchor).
- Group 2 (Ascending Order): Estimated $1 \times 2 \times 3 \times 4 \times 5 \times 6 \times 7 \times 8$. The initial numbers (1, 2, 3, 4) provide a low starting point (anchor).
Reasoning for Different Estimates
Because Group 1 started with larger numbers, their initial anchor was significantly higher. Although both groups had limited time (5 seconds) and likely made insufficient adjustments, the adjustments made from the higher anchor resulted in a larger final estimate compared to the adjustments made from the lower anchor by Group 2. The difference in estimates arises because the initial number sequence influenced the starting point, and subsequent adjustments were inadequate to correct fully for the initial anchor's magnitude.
Therefore, the biasing effect observed is due to the process of Adjustment from an initial anchor.
Important Questions from Analytical Decision Making (Notes)
- With only one match, between teams B and C, remaining in a tournament where each win fetches two points and a loss none, team A observes that they will become champions with more points than any other team if B wins, but not necessarily if B loses. Then
The following are the technology developmental phases.
Match List - I with List - II
List - I List - II (i) Organizational Phase (a) Specific goals and objectives are developed to achieve the vision (ii) Assessment and Analysis Phase (b) The technology planning team is formed (iii) Formulation Phase (c) The long-term goals are achieved (d) Based on the vision goals and objectives, a technology plan is developed Match the types of Quantitative research:
List-I List-II (1) Descriptive Survey Research (i) Ex-post-facto research (2) Correlation Research (ii) Cause-effect relationship between two
or more variables(3) Casual-comparative Research (iii) Degree of relationship between two or
more variables(4) Experimental Research (iv) Try to answer questions about the
current status of a phenomenon
Choose the correct answer from the following :Match the following types of research with its meaning:
Types of Research Meaning (1) Applied Research (i) Better understanding of the concept and
provides direction to initiate a more.(2) Exploratory Research (ii) Structured research aims at elucidating the data
and primary characteristics.(3) Descriptive Research (iii) Concerned with exploring the effect of one
variable on another.(4) Casual Research (iv) The goal is action oriented and focus on
immediate results.
Choose the correct options:_________________ psychology is a branch in which the findings of psychology are applied in the field of education.
