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Question

Given three indentical bags each containing 10 balls, whose colours are as follows :

 RedBlueGreen
Bag I325
Bag II433
Bag III514

A person chooses a bag at random and takes out a ball. If the ball is Red, the probability that it is from bag I is $p$ and if the ball is Green, the probability that it is from bag III is $q$, then the value of $\left( \frac{1}{p} + \frac{1}{q} \right)$ is:

The correct answer is
7

Problem Analysis:

  • Three bags (Bag I, Bag II, Bag III) contain 10 balls each.
  • The distribution of Red, Blue, and Green balls varies across the bags.
  • A bag is chosen randomly, meaning each bag has a probability of $1/3$ of being selected.
  • A ball is drawn from the chosen bag.
  • We need to calculate $p$, the probability that a Red ball came from Bag I, and $q$, the probability that a Green ball came from Bag III.
  • The final goal is to compute the value of the expression $\left( \frac{1}{p} + \frac{1}{q} \right)$.

Bag Composition Details

The number of balls of each color in the three bags is:

Bag Red Blue Green Total
Bag I 3 2 5 10
Bag II 4 3 3 10
Bag III 5 1 4 10

Calculating Probability $p$

Let $B_1$ denote the event of selecting Bag I, and $R$ denote the event of drawing a Red ball.

We need to find $p = P(B_1 | R)$, the probability the ball is from Bag I given it is Red.

Using Bayes' Theorem:

$ p = P(B_1 | R) = \frac{P(R | B_1) P(B_1)}{P(R)} $
  • Probability of selecting Bag I: $P(B_1) = \frac{1}{3}$.
  • Probability of drawing a Red ball given Bag I was selected: $P(R | B_1) = \frac{3}{10}$.
  • Total probability of drawing a Red ball, $P(R)$, is calculated as:
  • $ P(R) = P(R | B_1)P(B_1) + P(R | B_2)P(B_2) + P(R | B_3)P(B_3) $ $ P(R) = \left(\frac{3}{10} \times \frac{1}{3}\right) + \left(\frac{4}{10} \times \frac{1}{3}\right) + \left(\frac{5}{10} \times \frac{1}{3}\right) $ $ P(R) = \frac{1}{3} \left( \frac{3}{10} + \frac{4}{10} + \frac{5}{10} \right) = \frac{1}{3} \times \frac{12}{10} = \frac{4}{10} $
  • Now, substitute these values into Bayes' Theorem for $p$:
  • $ p = \frac{\frac{3}{10} \times \frac{1}{3}}{\frac{4}{10}} = \frac{\frac{1}{10}}{\frac{4}{10}} = \frac{1}{4} $

From $p = \frac{1}{4}$, we get $\frac{1}{p} = 4$.

Calculating Probability $q$

Let $B_3$ denote the event of selecting Bag III, and $G$ denote the event of drawing a Green ball.

We need to find $q = P(B_3 | G)$, the probability the ball is from Bag III given it is Green.

Using Bayes' Theorem:

$ q = P(B_3 | G) = \frac{P(G | B_3) P(B_3)}{P(G)} $
  • Probability of selecting Bag III: $P(B_3) = \frac{1}{3}$.
  • Probability of drawing a Green ball given Bag III was selected: $P(G | B_3) = \frac{4}{10}$.
  • Total probability of drawing a Green ball, $P(G)$, is calculated as:
  • $ P(G) = P(G | B_1)P(B_1) + P(G | B_2)P(B_2) + P(G | B_3)P(B_3) $ $ P(G) = \left(\frac{5}{10} \times \frac{1}{3}\right) + \left(\frac{3}{10} \times \frac{1}{3}\right) + \left(\frac{4}{10} \times \frac{1}{3}\right) $ $ P(G) = \frac{1}{3} \left( \frac{5}{10} + \frac{3}{10} + \frac{4}{10} \right) = \frac{1}{3} \times \frac{12}{10} = \frac{4}{10} $
  • Now, substitute these values into Bayes' Theorem for $q$:
  • $ q = \frac{\frac{4}{10} \times \frac{1}{3}}{\frac{4}{10}} = \frac{\frac{4}{30}}{\frac{4}{10}} = \frac{1}{3} $

From $q = \frac{1}{3}$, we get $\frac{1}{q} = 3$.

Final Calculation Result

The problem asks for the value of $\left( \frac{1}{p} + \frac{1}{q} \right)$.

Using the calculated values:

$ \left( \frac{1}{p} + \frac{1}{q} \right) = 4 + 3 = 7 $

The final value is 7.

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