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Question

Consider a Markov chain having state space $S = \{1,2,3,4\}$ with transition probability matrix $P = (p_{i,j})$ given by 
$$\begin{matrix} & \begin{matrix} 1 & \quad 2 & \quad 3 & \quad 4 \end{matrix} \\ \begin{matrix} 1 \\ 2 \\ 3 \\ 4 \end{matrix} & \begin{bmatrix} 1/2 & 0 & 1/2 & 0 \\ 1/4 & 1/4 & 1/4 & 1/4 \\ 1/3 & 0 & 1/3 & 1/3 \\ 1/2 & 0 & 1/2 & 0 \end{bmatrix} \end{matrix}$$
Then

The correct answer is
$\lim_{n \to \infty} p_{2,2}^{(n)} = 0, \sum_{n=0}^\infty p_{2,2}^{(n)} < \infty$

We need to analyze the behavior of the Markov chain described by the transition probability matrix $P$ for state 2.

Markov Chain Analysis

The state space is $S = \{1, 2, 3, 4\}$ and the transition matrix is:

    $ P = \begin{bmatrix} 1/2 & 0 & 1/2 & 0 \\ 1/4 & 1/4 & 1/4 & 1/4 \\ 1/3 & 0 & 1/3 & 1/3 \\ 1/2 & 0 & 1/2 & 0 \end{bmatrix} $

We are interested in the properties of state 2, specifically $\lim_{n \to \infty} p_{2,2}^{(n)}$ and $\sum_{n=0}^\infty p_{2,2}^{(n)}$.

State 2 Transience Check

  • Reachability to State 2: Observe the columns of the transition matrix $P$. The only non-zero entry in the second column (transitions *to* state 2) is $p_{2,2} = 1/4$. This means only state 2 can transition back to state 2. No other state (1, 3, or 4) can transition to state 2.
  • Leaving State 2: From state 2, the probabilities of moving to other states are $p_{2,1}=1/4$, $p_{2,2}=1/4$, $p_{2,3}=1/4$, $p_{2,4}=1/4$. The probability of leaving state 2 is $p_{2,1} + p_{2,3} + p_{2,4} = 1/4 + 1/4 + 1/4 = 3/4$.
  • Conclusion on Transience: Since there is a non-zero probability ($3/4$) of leaving state 2, and no other state can lead back to state 2, the chain will eventually leave state 2 and never return. Therefore, state 2 is a transient state.

Limit Behaviour ($\lim_{n \to \infty} p_{2,2}^{(n)}$)

  • For any transient state $j$, the probability of being in that state after infinitely many steps approaches zero, regardless of the starting state $i$.
  • Since state 2 is transient, $\lim_{n \to \infty} p_{2,2}^{(n)} = 0$.

Sum Behaviour ($\sum_{n=0}^\infty p_{2,2}^{(n)}$)

  • For any transient state $j$, the sum of probabilities of being in state $j$ over all steps starting from any state $i$ is finite.
  • Since state 2 is transient, $\sum_{n=0}^\infty p_{2,2}^{(n)} < \infty$.

Final Result

Combining the findings:

  • $\lim_{n \to \infty} p_{2,2}^{(n)} = 0$
  • $\sum_{n=0}^\infty p_{2,2}^{(n)} < \infty$

This corresponds to the properties of a transient state in a Markov chain.

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Important Questions from Probability (Notes)

  1. A box contains 20 black, 22 white, and 24 red socks. If a person draws socks at random one by one without looking, what is the minimum number of socks she must pick to be certain of having at least one pair of black socks?
  2. The following bus schedule is seen at a bus stop located somewhere in between town A and town B. 
    Town A-00:10, then every 20 mins 
    Town B-00:15, then every 20 mins 
    If a person arrives at this bus stop at some random time, the probability that the next bus is for town B is

  3. Some, but not all, faces of a six-faced cubical fair die are painted red (R) and the remaining green (G); and the die is thrown until red faces come up on top 4 times.
    Consider the following sequences of colours listed left to right as they appear on the top.

    A: GRRRR
    B: GRGRRR

    Which one of the following is true?
  4. In a class, 40% and 20% students passed in Mathematics and Physics, respectively, and 10% students passed in both subjects. What is the probability of a randomly selected student to have passed in Physics if the student already passed in Mathematics?
  5. A stick of length L is broken into two pieces at random. What is the average length of the smaller piece?
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