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Question

Let $X_1, \dots, X_{10}$ be a random sample of size 10 from a continuous distribution with probability density function 

$f_\theta(x) = \begin{cases} e^{(\theta-x)}, & x \ge \theta \\ 0, & \text{otherwise}. \end{cases}$ 

$\theta \in \mathbb{R}$ is unknown. 

Consider the problem of testing the null hypothesis $H_0 : \theta \le 3$ against the alternate hypothesis $H_1 : \theta > 3$, based on $X_1, \dots, X_{10}$. Let $L(\theta)$ denote the likelihood function and $x_{(1)} = \min(x_1, \dots, x_{10})$. 

Which of the following statements are correct?

Analysis of Option A: Supremum of Likelihood under $H_0$

The likelihood function for the sample $X_1, \dots, X_{10}$ is:

$L(\theta) = \prod_{i=1}^{10} f_\theta(x_i) = \prod_{i=1}^{10} e^{(\theta - x_i)}$ for $x_i \ge \theta$ for all $i$.

This condition implies $x_{(1)} = \min(x_1, \dots, x_{10}) \ge \theta$. The likelihood simplifies to:

$L(\theta) = e^{\sum_{i=1}^{10} (\theta - x_i)} = e^{10\theta - \sum_{i=1}^{10} x_i}$, subject to $\theta \le x_{(1)}$.

We need to find $\sup_{\theta \le 3} L(\theta)$. This involves maximizing $L(\theta)$ subject to $\theta \le 3$ (null hypothesis) and $\theta \le x_{(1)}$ (data constraint). The combined constraint is $\theta \le \min(3, x_{(1)})$.

Since $L(\theta)$ increases with $\theta$, the maximum occurs at $\theta = \min(3, x_{(1)})$.

$\sup_{\theta \le 3} L(\theta) = L(\min(3, x_{(1)}))$.

When $x_{(1)} \le 3$, we have $\min(3, x_{(1)}) = x_{(1)}$. Thus, the supremum is $L(x_{(1)}) = e^{10x_{(1)} - \sum_{i=1}^{10} x_i}$. This confirms Option A.

Analysis of Option D: Likelihood Ratio Test Critical Region

The Likelihood Ratio Test (LRT) statistic is $\lambda(x) = \frac{\sup_{\theta \in \Theta_0} L(\theta)}{\sup_{\theta \in \Theta} L(\theta)}$, where $\Theta_0 = \{\theta : \theta \le 3\}$ and $\Theta = \mathbb{R}$.

The unrestricted maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) is $\hat{\theta}_{MLE} = x_{(1)}$, giving $\sup_{\theta \in \Theta} L(\theta) = L(x_{(1)}) = e^{10x_{(1)} - \sum_{i=1}^{10} x_i}$.

We consider the case relevant for the test statistic calculation, where the MLE falls outside the null parameter space, i.e., $x_{(1)} > 3$. In this case, the supremum under $H_0$ is $\sup_{\theta \le 3} L(\theta) = L(3) = e^{30 - \sum_{i=1}^{10} x_i}$.

The LRT statistic becomes:

$\lambda(x) = \frac{L(3)}{L(x_{(1)})} = \frac{e^{30 - \sum x_i}}{e^{10x_{(1)} - \sum x_i}} = e^{30 - 10x_{(1)}}$, for $x_{(1)} > 3$.

The critical region is determined by $\lambda(x) \le c_\alpha$, meaning $e^{30 - 10x_{(1)}} \le c_\alpha$. This inequality rearranges to $x_{(1)} \ge 3 - \frac{1}{10} \log(c_\alpha)$.

To find the critical value $k = 3 - \frac{1}{10} \log(c_\alpha)$, we use the test size $\alpha$. We evaluate the probability of rejection under the null hypothesis boundary $\theta=3$. The cumulative distribution function (CDF) of $X_{(1)}$ given $\theta$ is $F_{X_{(1)}}(x|\theta) = 1 - e^{-10(x-\theta)}$ for $x \ge \theta$.

The size condition is $P(X_{(1)} \ge k | \theta=3) = \alpha$. This probability is calculated as:

$P(X_{(1)} \ge k | \theta=3) = 1 - F_{X_{(1)}}(k | \theta=3) = 1 - (1 - e^{-10(k-3)}) = e^{-10(k-3)}$.

Setting $e^{-10(k-3)} = \alpha$, we take the natural logarithm: $-10(k-3) = \log(\alpha)$. Solving for $k$ gives $k = 3 - \frac{1}{10} \log(\alpha)$.

Thus, the critical region is $X_{(1)} \ge k$, which is $X_{(1)} \ge 3 - \frac{1}{10} \log(\alpha)$. This confirms Option D.

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Important Questions from Random Variables

  1. Let $X$, $Y$, and $Z$ be independent Normal random variables with means $-1$, $0$, and $1$, respectively, and variances $1$, $1$, and $3$, respectively. Which of the following random variables has a Cauchy distribution with location parameter $0$ and scale parameter $1$?

  2. Consider a finite population of size $N = 100$. Let $T_1$ be the sample mean of a study variable based on a sample of size $n$ ($1 < n < N$) under simple random sampling with replacement scheme. Let $T_2$ be the sample mean of the same study variable based on a sample of size $n$ under simple random sampling without replacement scheme. If $Var(T_1) = 9Var(T_2)$, then the sample size $n$ equals
  3. Let $X_1$ and $X_2$ be a random sample from Uniform$[0, \theta]$ distribution, where $\theta > 0$. For testing the hypothesis
    $H_0: \theta = 1$ against $H_1: \theta = 2$,
    consider a test which rejects $H_0$ if $X_1 + X_2 > \frac{4}{5}$. Then, the probability of type-I error is

  4. Let $\{Y_n: n \ge 1\}$ be a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables, where $Y_1 \sim \text{Bernoulli}(\frac{1}{2})$. Define $Z = \sum_{n=1}^\infty \frac{4Y_n}{5^n}$. Then, which of the following statements is true?
  5. Let $X$ be a single sample from an absolutely continuous distribution with probability density function
    $f(x|\theta) = \begin{cases} \frac{2}{\theta^2}(\theta - x), & \text{if } 0 < x < \theta \\ 0, & \text{otherwise,} \end{cases}$
    where $\theta > 0$ is unknown. Which of the following intervals is a $95\%$ confidence interval for $\theta$?

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