First, calculate the frequency of the $A_1$ allele ($p$) using the given genotype frequencies:
The frequency of the $A_1$ allele ($p$) is calculated as: $p = f(A_1A_1) + \frac{1}{2} f(A_1A_2)$ Substituting the given values:
$p = 0.16 + \frac{1}{2} (0.48)$ $p = 0.16 + 0.24$ $p = 0.40$
In the context of genetic drift, assuming the allele is neutral (no selection advantage), the probability of an allele eventually becoming fixed (reaching a frequency of 1.0) in the population is equal to its current frequency.
Therefore, the probability of fixation for the $A_1$ allele is its frequency, $p$.
Probability of Fixation for $A_1 = p = 0.40$.
This value ($0.40$) lies within the specified range of 0.39 to 0.41.
In a population of birds on an island, the average beak size reduced over one generation. A researcher estimated the association between beak size and relative fitness, shown in the graph. The estimated slope was –0.05 with a 95% confidence interval of -0.15 to 0.09.

Which one of the following evolutionary processes acting on beak size is the most likely reason for the observed reduction in beak size?