In population genetics, the probability of a new neutral mutation becoming fixed (i.e., reaching a frequency of 1.0) in a diploid population is a key concept.
A neutral mutation does not confer any selective advantage or disadvantage. Its fate in the population is primarily determined by random genetic drift.
For a diploid population of effective size N, the probability of a new neutral mutation eventually becoming fixed is given by the formula:
$ P_{fix} = \frac{1}{2N} $
This formula assumes that the mutation arises initially in a single copy (heterozygous state) in a diploid organism.
The formula shows that the probability of fixation is inversely proportional to the population size (N). Larger populations have a lower probability of fixation for a neutral mutation due to the stronger effect of random drift overwhelming the initial introduction.
Let's review the given options:
| Option 1 | 1/N |
| Option 2 | 2/N |
| Option 3 | 1/(2N) |
| Option 4 | 1/(4N) |
Based on the standard formula in population genetics, the probability of fixation for a new neutral mutation in a diploid population of size N is 1/(2N).
In a population of birds on an island, the average beak size reduced over one generation. A researcher estimated the association between beak size and relative fitness, shown in the graph. The estimated slope was –0.05 with a 95% confidence interval of -0.15 to 0.09.

Which one of the following evolutionary processes acting on beak size is the most likely reason for the observed reduction in beak size?