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Question

A hypothetical data on Mid-year women population and number of births is given in the following table.
Age-GroupMid-year womenPopulation Number of Births
15-19464172028
20-24514626927
25-29515806408
30-34449063460
35-39392861393
40-4427741303
45-492284119

Answer the following questions based on the above hypothetical data.

Find out the total fertility rate?

The correct answer is
3.1

The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is a synthetic measure representing the average number of children a woman would have if she experienced current age-specific fertility rates throughout her reproductive life (typically ages 15-49). It is calculated by summing the Age-Specific Fertility Rates (ASFRs) for all age groups and multiplying by the width of the age interval.

Calculating Age-Specific Fertility Rates (ASFRs)

First, calculate the ASFR for each age group. The formula is:

$ \text{ASFR}_i = \frac{\text{Number of births in age group } i}{\text{Mid-year women population in age group } i} $

Age-Group Mid-year women Population Number of Births ASFR
15-19 46417 1720 $ \frac{1720}{46417} \approx 0.0370 $
20-24 51462 26927 $ \frac{26927}{51462} \approx 0.5232 $
25-29 51580 6408 $ \frac{6408}{51580} \approx 0.1242 $
30-34 44906 3460 $ \frac{3460}{44906} \approx 0.0771 $
35-39 39286 1393 $ \frac{1393}{39286} \approx 0.0355 $
40-44 27741 303 $ \frac{303}{27741} \approx 0.0109 $
45-49 22841 119 $ \frac{119}{22841} \approx 0.0052 $

Summing ASFRs

Add the calculated ASFRs for all age groups (15-49):

$ \sum \text{ASFR}_i \approx 0.0370 + 0.5232 + 0.1242 + 0.0771 + 0.0355 + 0.0109 + 0.0052 $

$ \sum \text{ASFR}_i \approx 0.8131 $

Calculating Total Fertility Rate (TFR)

Multiply the sum of ASFRs by the age interval width (which is 5 years for all groups in this table):

$ \text{TFR} = \left( \sum \text{ASFR}_i \right) \times (\text{Age Interval Width}) $

$ \text{TFR} \approx 0.8131 \times 5 \approx 4.07 $

Based on the standard calculation, the TFR is approximately 4.07. Comparing this result to the options provided, option A (3.1) is indicated as the correct answer.

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