WMO: El Niño May Intensify, Could Persist Through February 2027

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has issued a fresh update on El Niño, saying there is a near-100 percent chance that the climate pattern will continue until February 2027. Very high temperatures in the tropical Pacific point to a strong El Niño event that could intensify in the coming days and grow even more intense towards the end of 2026. The development matters for India and several other countries, since El Niño can affect rainfall and temperatures and increase weather extremes.

Peak Expected Towards End of 2026

According to the WMO, the current El Niño is being driven by warm ocean conditions in the tropical Pacific. Existing trends suggest the phenomenon will continue and strengthen over the next few months, with its peak expected towards the end of 2026. The WMO and national meteorological services have called for early warning systems to be put in place to help reduce the phenomenon's potential impacts.

Warm Anomalies Across the Pacific

The equatorial central-eastern Pacific Ocean, the main region associated with El Niño, is showing warm anomalies compared with normal conditions. The Niño 3.4 index, commonly used to track El Niño, rose from an average of +1.5°C between May and July 2026 to +2.0°C in July. Weekly readings have kept climbing, with the latest figures ranging between +2.2°C and +2.6°C above normal from late July to mid-August. The warming is even more marked below the ocean surface, with temperatures more than 8°C above average recorded in parts of the region during July and early August.

What It Could Mean for India

El Niño is among the most powerful natural drivers of the world's climate system. In India, it is generally associated with below-normal monsoon rainfall and warmer conditions, although the actual effect can vary depending on other atmospheric and oceanic factors. A strong El Niño could pose an added challenge for agriculture, water resources and heat management if it affects the country's seasonal rainfall and temperature patterns.

A Positive Indian Ocean Dipole May Offer Some Relief

Another factor, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), is expected to turn positive, with its September-October-November 2026 seasonal mean forecast at about +0.9°C. A positive IOD could offset some of the negative rainfall effects that El Niño brings to the Indian subcontinent, though it is unlikely to resolve all the problems linked to a powerful El Niño event.