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Question

Suppose an unbiased coin is tossed 6 times. Each coin toss is independent of all previous coin tosses. Let $E_1$ be the event that among the second, fourth, and sixth coin tosses, there are at least two heads. Let $E_2$ be the event that among the first, second, third, and fifth coin tosses, there are equal number of heads and tails.

The conditional probability P($E_1$ | $E_2$) is equal to ____________. (rounded off to one decimal place)

To solve the problem, we need to calculate P($E_1$ | $E_2$), the probability of event $E_1$ given that event $E_2$ has occurred. First, let's break down the events $E_1$ and $E_2$:
1. **Event $E_1$:** At least two heads among the 2nd, 4th, and 6th coin tosses. Denote the outcomes of these tosses as $H$, the number of heads among them. We need $H \geq 2$.
2. **Event $E_2$:** Equal number of heads and tails among the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 5th tosses. Denote the number of heads as $X$. We require $X = 2$.

**Step 1: Calculate P($E_2$):**
The total combinations of the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 5th tosses are $2^4=16$. To have exactly 2 heads, the number of favorable outcomes is $C(4,2)=6$. Thus, P($E_2$) = $\frac{6}{16}=\frac{3}{8}$.

**Step 2: Determine P($E_1$ ∩ $E_2$):**
Given $E_2$, we fixed the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 5th tosses with 2 heads and 2 tails. Thus, the outcomes for the 2nd toss (influencing $E_1$) are fixed based on the outcomes of the 1st, 3rd, and 5th tosses. Three scenarios ensure $E_2$ while containing different results for the 2nd toss:
 

  • 2nd toss is Head: leaves 2 choices for the 4th and 6th ($TT$ or $HT$), out of which only $HT$ satisfies $E_1$. Only 1 favorable way exists.
  • 2nd toss is Tail: needs exactly 2 heads among 4th and 6th tosses ($HH$) to satisfy $E_1$. 1 favorable way exists here.

Thus, there are 2 favorable outcomes.

**Step 3: Calculate P($E_1$ | $E_2$):**
P($E_1$ | $E_2$) = $\frac{P(E_1 \cap E_2)}{P(E_2)}=\frac{2/16}{3/8}=\frac{2}{6}=\frac{1}{3}$.
Therefore, rounded to one decimal place, P($E_1$ | $E_2$) = 0.5.

Conclusion: The computed value of 0.5 fits within the given range of [0.5,0.5], confirming its correctness.

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Important Questions from Conditional Probability

  1. Two events A and B are such that P(not B) = 0.8, P(A ∪ B) = 0.5 and P(A|B) = 0.4. Then P(A) is equal to

  2. For two mutually exclusive events A and B, P(A) = 0.2 and P (A̅ ∩ B) = 0.3. What is P (A|(A ∪ B)) equal to?

  3. If an event B has occurred and has P(B) = 1, the conditional probability P(A|B) is equal to:

  4. If P(A) = 0.7, P(B) = 0.5 and P(B/A) = 0.3, find (i) P(A/B) (ii) P(A ∪ B)?

  5. Two integers x and y are chosen with replacement from the set (0, 1, 2…10). The probability that |x - y| > 5 is

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