Let $Y = (Y_1, \dots, Y_n)'$ have the multivariate normal distribution $N_n(0, I)$. Which of the following is the covariance matrix of the conditional distribution of $Y$ given $$\sum_{i=1}^n Y_i ?$$ ($1$ denotes the $n \times 1$ vector with all elements 1.)
$I - \frac{11'}{n}$
We are given a random vector $Y = (Y_1, \dots, Y_n)'$ following a multivariate normal distribution $N_n(0, I)$. This specifies the mean vector $E[Y] = 0$ and the covariance matrix $Cov(Y) = \Sigma = I$, where $I$ is the $n \times n$ identity matrix.
The objective is to determine the covariance matrix of the conditional distribution of $Y$ given the sum $S = \sum_{i=1}^n Y_i$. This sum can be represented using vector notation as $S = 1'Y$, where $1$ is the $n \times 1$ vector consisting of all ones.
For a multivariate normal random vector $Y \sim N_n(\mu, \Sigma)$, the covariance matrix of the conditional distribution of $Y$ given a linear constraint $a'Y = c$ is provided by the formula:
$ Cov(Y | a'Y) = \Sigma - \frac{\Sigma a a' \Sigma}{a' \Sigma a} $
In this context, $\mu = 0$, $\Sigma = I$, and the linear combination for conditioning is $1'Y$, which means we use $a = 1$.
We substitute $\Sigma = I$ and $a = 1$ into the conditional covariance formula:
By substituting these calculated terms back into the formula, we obtain the conditional covariance matrix:
$ Cov(Y | 1'Y) = I - \frac{1 1'}{n} $
Therefore, the covariance matrix of the conditional distribution of $Y$ given $\sum_{i=1}^n Y_i$ is $I - \frac{11'}{n}$. This corresponds to Option 3.
Let $\Sigma = ((\sigma_{ij}))$ be an $n \times n$ symmetric and positive definite matrix such that $\sigma_{ij} \neq 0$ for all $i, j$. Which of the following matrices will always be the covariance matrix of a multivariate normal random vector?