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Question

A and B play a game of tossing a fair coin. A starts the game by tossing the coin once and B then tosses the coin twice, followed by A tossing the coin once and B tossing the coin twice and this continues until a head turns up. Whoever gets the first head wins the game. Then,

Game Overview

This game involves players A and B tossing a fair coin sequentially until a head appears. A tosses once, then B tosses twice. This pattern repeats.

  • A tosses (1 coin). If H, A wins.
  • If A gets T, B tosses (2 coins). If H appears, B wins.
  • If B gets TT, the turn returns to A.
  • The cycle (A: 1 toss, B: 2 tosses) repeats until a player wins by getting H.

Probability Calculations

Let $P(H) = 1/2$ be the probability of heads and $P(T) = 1/2$ for a fair coin.

Let $P_A$ be the probability A wins, and $P_B$ be the probability B wins. Since the game eventually ends, $P_A + P_B = 1$.

Determining $P_A$ (Player A Wins)

A wins if they get H on their toss.

Consider the probability of the game repeating. This happens if A gets T (prob $1/2$) AND B gets TT (prob $(1/2)*(1/2) = 1/4$).

Probability of the game repeating after one round (A tosses T, B tosses TT) = $P(T) \times P(TT) = (1/2) \times (1/4) = 1/8$.

Let $P_A$ be the probability A wins from the start.

$P_A = P(\text{A wins on first toss}) + P(\text{Game repeats}) \times P_A$

$P_A = \frac{1}{2} + \left( \frac{1}{8} \right) \times P_A$

Solving for $P_A$: $P_A - \frac{1}{8} P_A = \frac{1}{2}$ $\frac{7}{8} P_A = \frac{1}{2}$ $P_A = \frac{1}{2} \times \frac{8}{7} = \frac{4}{7}$

Determining $P_B$ (Player B Wins)

B wins if A gets T, and then B gets H in their two tosses.

Probability B wins on their turn = P(A gets T) $\times$ P(B gets H in 2 tosses)

P(B gets H in 2 tosses) = P(H on 1st) + P(T on 1st, H on 2nd) = $1/2 + (1/2)*(1/2) = 3/4$.

Probability B wins on their first available turn = $(1/2) \times (3/4) = 3/8$.

Using the same logic as for $P_A$: $P_B = P(\text{B wins on first turn}) + P(\text{Game repeats}) \times P_B$

$P_B = \frac{3}{8} + \frac{1}{8} P_B$

Solving for $P_B$: $P_B - \frac{1}{8} P_B = \frac{3}{8}$ $\frac{7}{8} P_B = \frac{3}{8}$ $P_B = \frac{3}{8} \times \frac{8}{7} = \frac{3}{7}$

Alternatively, since $P_A + P_B = 1$, $P_B = 1 - P_A = 1 - 4/7 = 3/7$.

Conclusion on Probabilities

We found $P_A = 4/7$ and $P_B = 3/7$.

  • Comparing probabilities: $4/7 > 3/7$, so $P(A \text{ Wins}) > P(B \text{ Wins})$.
  • Checking the sum: $P_A + P_B = 4/7 + 3/7 = 1$, so $P(A \text{ Wins}) = 1 - P(B \text{ Wins})$.

Based on these findings, the correct statements are $P(A \text{ Wins}) > P(B \text{ Wins})$ and $P(A \text{ Wins}) = 1 - P(B \text{ Wins})$.

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Important Questions from Discrete Probability

  1. A biased six-faced die is tossed once. Suppose that the probability of any prime number showing up is twice that of any non-prime number showing up. Then, the probability that an odd number will show up is
  2. Let $X$ and $Y$ be independent Poisson random variables with means $4$ and $2$, respectively. Then, which of the following statements are true?
  3. Consider the M/M/1 queue in which customers arrive according to a Poisson process with rate $3$ and successive service times are independent exponential random variables having mean $\frac{1}{9}$. Let $P_n$ be the long run probability that there are exactly $n$ customers in the system. Then, which of the following statements are true?
  4. Let $X$ be a Binomial$(n, p)$ random variable, where $n \in \{5,6\}$ and $p\in \{\frac{1}{4}, \frac{3}{4}\}$. If $X = 3$ is observed, then the maximum likelihood estimate of $(n, p)$ is
  5. Suppose two fair dice are thrown independently at random. Let $X$ and $Y$ be the numbers on the upper face of the first die and that of the second die, respectively. Then which of the following statements are true?
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